Earlier this month, the Asia Development Bank released some revised forecasts for growth in Asia. In the first article, the ADB discusses growth for the PRC, the primary factors involved, and also the risks that still exist when looking ahead at China's economic momentum.
"The economy posted very rapid growth in the first half with fixed-asset investments, exports, and imports all rising significantly from a year earlier," said Mr. Ifzal Ali, ADB Chief Economist, at the launch of Asian Development Outlook 2006 Update.
"Even with an interest rate increase in mid-August that followed earlier monetary and administrative tightening measures, we expect second-half cooling to be modest. Our concern is that if the current investment boom continues, it could result in chronic overcapacity," he said.
In the second article, the ADB looks at all of developing Asia:
"Developing Asia’s rapid growth is underpinned by strong performances by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, which together account for more than 50% of regional GDP," said Mr. Ifzal Ali, ADB Chief Economist, in launching Asian Development Outlook 2006 Update.
"The region should take advantage of this strength to act in three areas that could undermine growth if not addressed - the need to complete the adjustment to high oil prices, the need to pick up the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the need to stimulate investment," he said.
Of course, from this news we can infer that supply chain activity will also be expected to grow across links to and from the developing Asia region as well as within the individual countries that make up this region. Along with simply trying to match capacity with demand, there will be continuing efforts to simultaneously create more efficient and effective supply chain performance.
To ensure successful supply chain performance even further, there will be growing efforts to secure supply chains in those developing regions that are the least sophisticated. Leading logistics providers and supply chain management firms will be at the forefront of this effort and paints a very positive picture of business opportunities for the supply chain professional operating in Asia, or with significant experience in Asia but operating outside the region.
Assuming such growth rates will not last forever, or that a significant negative event like the Asia Financial Crisis or 2004 tsunami will eventually occur again, now is a great time for logistics and supply chain firms to build additional resiliency to better survive slower growth or crises, or a combination of both. Although activities dedicated to instilling resiliency obviously need continuous attention, much can be overlooked when times are good and thus addressed too late when "crap hits the fan." Especially small- and medium-sized businesses with fewer resources to dedicate towards long-term strategic activities need to be extra vigilant.